The Yield Curve's Recession Warning — And When It Cried Wolf
An inverted yield curve has preceded most modern recessions, but its signal is slow, imprecise, and has punished investors who tried to trade it directly.
An inverted yield curve has preceded most modern recessions, but its signal is slow, imprecise, and has punished investors who tried to trade it directly.
Bond yields rose as investors dialed back expectations for near-term easing.
Consumer spending came in stronger than forecast, easing slowdown fears.
The central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged and signaled patience on future moves.
Markets are positioning ahead of a key consumer price reading due Friday.
2024 was expected to be the year when interest rates would start falling in the first quarter. However, the Federal Reserve is now signaling it is under no economic pressure to cut rates at all while some analysts are even modeling rates to move higher as inflation remains difficult to tame. On Tues
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